Apple Stumble, maybe not

[G+_Jonathan Mayer]

Originally shared by Luke Olson

 

Apple Stumble, maybe not.

 

Some new numbers are out (Strategy Analytics) which got me thinking.

 

iPad shipments are down quarter to quarter and year to year for Q2.  Which really means absolutely nothing because at this time in 2012 the short lived 3rd gen iPad was only 4 months old and the iPad mini and surprise 4th gen iPad were still 3 months off.  So the Apple number really can’t be compared.

 

Interestingly, Apple believes that the iPad mini will out sell its larger brother by over 1.6 times in 2013. (appleinsider).  Its has been stated a lot (iMore) that for reasons of size, weight, battery life the iPad mini couldn’t go retina at the end of 2012. So the mini is non-retina 163ppi, 310g, 7.1mm thick, 9-10 hour battery, and a price tag $329-$529.

 

Then enter the 2013 Nexus 7.  A 7 inch tablet, with 323ppi, 290g, 8.65mm thick, a reported 9-10 hour battery life, and a price tag of $229 or $269.  New and shiny.

 

Now here’s where it gets really interesting.  Apple is rumored to not refresh the iPad mini this year, the source is Digitimes so that make it rather unreliable.  Still the rumor is out there.  IF there is no refresh Apple misses the all important holiday season, but more importantly they will also miss out on the mindshare of all the people wanting to buy their first tablets for christmas.  When presented with the option of new, shiny, fancy and cheaper tablet, vs a 1+year old, shiny, fancy and $100 more expensive tablet Apple is going to lose that fight.  These people are not early adopters, they aren’t techy people, they are not going to be swayed by the fruit logo.

 

That scenario doesn’t seem very Apple like to me.  They don’t have lapses that cause the loss of a holiday season.  They have something up their sleeves. I think that Apple has a plan, but I don’t think it involves a new Retina iPad mini for christmas. It might be a price drop, it might be a cheaper version of the mini, it could be colors, or any number of things.  Will it be enough to overcome the growing sales and mindshare of Android tablets?  I guess we’ll find out in 2014.

http://www.skyjedi.com/blog/apple-stumble-maybe-not/

[G+_Dave Trautman]

If I understood you correctly you're saying "...something is coming..." which is to say Apple will announce __ .

 

I think you are correct to say Apple usually never misses the holiday season without a somewhat new product to hail. I also think you miss the mark by suggesting the fruit logo has any draw at all. The faithful are faithful to good products not the logo.

 

Key to this question (for which I admit I have no answers) is whether this pending "something" will shake the ground or simply be an improvement on existing products. I would like to place my bet on a new and different product of some kind but I would still expect the odds to be against me. I like the idea of a less-expensive line of phones to fill in the space just below the current resale of 4's and 5's. This is the crowding out approach Apple has used in the past (as Rene often points out) where they pressure others to narrow margins and risk market share.

 

I don't think a retina mini-pad is completely out of the question. But the battery life thing is a huge issue. Having listened to the battery management improvements announced before regarding iOS and OSX I suspect they will work on getting some performance out of the OS and some from a slightly more powerful battery. If iOS could make a standard iPhone last even longer imagine the market for a two-day phone.

 

I actually believe interest in the new Mac Pro will grow when people see what it can do. Everyday people I mean. I also think some sort of very large display series might be back in the line-up due to the capability and improvements in display handling with the new OSX Mavericks. So, whatever entrails you want to point to I think most of them are foreshadowed by the software and battery management announcements we've already heard about. There is likely even more in the pipeline which only developers under NDA have been told about.

 

What I really hope happens is there are a bunch of hardware updates and expansion of iPhone along with more powerful leverage of iCloud services to tie it all together. The always live app needs a constant network and synch pattern to be useful and ubiquitous and here Apple constantly lags behind the others.

 

Stepping off soapbox now...